New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Peru Shipping Report Q2 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/09/2013 --We forecast real GDP growth to come in at 5.4% in 2013, a slight upgrade from our previous forecast of 5.2%, due to our expectation that economic activity will remain relatively robust in the next few months.

BMI sees favourable base effects affecting Peruvian exports in 2013, including the cyclical upswing in Chinese growth, some upside for metals prices in H113, as well as modestly stronger hydrocarbons production that will boost exports this year. This should boost shipping volumes. We expect slowing domestic growth to weigh on imports, forecasting growth of 8.1% in 2013, down from 10.4% in 2012. That said, in line with our view for economic rebalancing in China, we expect export growth will remain well off its recent highs, averaging 8.0% between 2013 and 2017, as compared to 19.1% between 2006 and 2011.

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Headline Industry Data

- We are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow 5.2% in 2013 to 20.3mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- We expect growth of 2.9% in total tonnage throughput at Callao to 1.1mn tonnes.

Key Industry Trends

CTA To Build Minerals Terminals At Callao: The government of Peru announced that private investor Consorcio Transportadora Callao (CTC) building a US$43.1mn investment to build an export terminal for minerals at Callao. According to the Peru's national ports entity, Autoridid Portuaria Nacional (APN), CTC is funding the entire investment over a 13-month period.

New Sevice Between US West Coast and Peru: Hamburg Sud launched a direct liner service between North, Central and South America at the start of January.

Peru Bunker Prices Climbing: The price of bunker fuel at the Port of Callao in Peru jumped nearly US $20/mt as bunker suppliers received new pricing for resupply from the state-owned oil company Petroperu in January.

Key Risks To Outlook

A delayed rebalancing of the Chinese economy could result in a continuation of the trend of robust external demand for Peru's mining exports, as well as stronger investment inflows than we currently anticipate.

These factors would likely bolster Peru's economy in the coming years, posing major upside risks to our real GDP growth forecasts of 5.4% for 2013 and 4.9% for 2014. However, if growth does begin to slow in the latter half of the year - our core view - we could see counter-cyclical fiscal policy, such as increased funding for the ongoing infrastructure stimulus programme, bolstering growth and posing upside risks to our current forecasts.

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