Financial Advisor Looks at China's Slowing Economy: Will You Feel It?

Tubbergen's radio show is also available as podcasts.

Grand Rapids, MI -- (SBWire) -- 06/27/2013 --We all know it can be difficult to stay abreast of everything that is happening financially in the United States today. Dennis Tubbergen, a financial advisor, author, radio show host and CEO of PLP Advisors, LLC can be counted on to give a hand when it comes to understanding the latest events in U.S. and world economics.

Whether people enjoy his monthly newsletter at www.moving-markets.com or his blog at www.dennistubbergen.com, Tubbergen is dedicated to sharing his viewpoints and opinions. On June 17, 2013 his blog was titled China: Slowest Economic Growth in 13 Years.

"A Reuters News Service story reported that China is experiencing the slowest growth in well over a decade," began Tubbergen.

Below he quotes from the June 9, 2013 article.

Risks are rising that China's economic growth will slide further in the second quarter after weekend data showed unexpected weakness in May trade and domestic activity struggling to pick up.

Evidence has mounted in recent weeks that China's economic growth is fast losing momentum but Premier Li Keqiang tried to strike a reassuring note, saying the economy was generally stable and that growth was within a "relatively high and reasonable range".

China's economy grew at its slowest pace for 13 years in 2012 and so far this year economic data has surprised on the downside, bringing warnings from some analysts that the country could miss its growth target of 7.5 percent for this year.

"Growth remains unconvincing and the momentum seems to have lost pace in May," Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS, said in a note. "The short-term growth outlook remains subject to risks and we may well end up revising down our growth forecast for 2013 further."

Exports posted their lowest annual growth rate in almost a year in May at 1 percent, exposing a more realistic picture of trade following a crackdown by authorities on currency speculation disguised as export trades to skirt capital controls, which had created double-digit rises in export growth every month this year even as world growth stuttered.

May exports to both the United States and the European Union - China's top two markets - both fell from a year earlier for the third month running.

Imports fell 0.3 percent against expectations for a 6 percent rise as the volume of many commodity shipments fell from a year earlier.

The volume of major metals imports, including copper and alumina, fell at double-digit rates. Coal imports fell sharply.

"The trade data reflects the sluggish domestic and overseas demand, signaling a slower-than-expected recovery in the second quarter," said Shen Lan, an economist at Standard Chartered bank in Shanghai.

A government factory survey of purchasing managers and a similar poll sponsored by HSBC, both issued earlier this month, showed export orders falling in May, suggesting the outlook remained grim.

Inflation, bank-lending growth and investment were below expectations in May, while factory output and retail sales rose around the same pace as in April.

"Consumer inflation in China slowed to the slowest pace in three months; perhaps an early sign of deflation entering the picture," explains Tubbergen.

"This economic slowdown that China and the rest of the world are experiencing is quite predictable," he states. "In the case of China, municipalities have humongous debt levels which will tend to be deflationary. China also has a demographic problem: an aging population."

Below he quotes from an October 24, 2012 NBC report.

China, the manufacturing hub of the world, is in danger of losing that title.

Its population is aging fast as its one-child policy, begun in the 1970s, begins to bite. This, in turn, could lead to a huge labor shortfall by 2050, according to experts.

China's workforce, those between the ages of 15 and 64, is expected to start contracting beginning in 2015. The number of new entrants into the workforce is already falling and will decline by 30 percent in 2020 compared to 2010, according to Beijing-based research firm GK Dragonomics.

"In the case of China, you have a shrinking number of people in the young adult workforce, shrinking numbers of children feeding into this force, and a growing number of the aging workforce," Judith Banister, senior demographer at Javelin Investments in Beijing, said.

In 2010, there were 110 million people 65 and above in China; by 2030, the number will increase by more than 100 million, according to the United Nations. By 2050, more than a quarter of the population will be over 65.

In an article published in the China Economic Quarterly earlier this year, Wang Feng, director of Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing, likens China's demographic structure to a bullet train racing into the unknown.

"Profound demographic changes in China are redrawing the parameters of the country's future," Wang wrote.

Over the past two decades, China has experienced what experts call "a demographic window of opportunity." UN data show the country's working age population grew from 66 percent of China's total population in 1990 to more than 72 percent in 2010 — fueling the nation's economic rise, when it grew at an average rate of nearly 10 percent annually.

China's working age population is expected to decline to 61 percent of the total population by 2050, according to the UN.

A one-child policy introduced in 1977 and rolled out nationwide two years later has contributed to falling birth rates, while life expectancy has gone up.

"China’s labor force will soon begin a significant contraction," notes Tubbergen. "That will increase the cost of labor and make China a less competitive location for manufacturing. But, there’s another potentially larger issue here. An older population consumes less."

Tubbergen goes on to say that while that is not as detrimental to China as it is to the US, it is still a significant factor. According to The World Bank, 34% of China’s GDP is from household consumption as compared to 72% in the U.S. As China’s population ages and as labor costs increase, China’s GDP growth will slow.

"But it’s important to keep these factors in context," Tubbergen concludes. "The growth rate of the Chinese economy is slowing from double-digit percentage increases annually to single digits."

To read the blog in its entirety go to http://www.dennistubbergen.com and select his June 17, 2013 entry.

Tubbergen’s syndicated radio show can be heard on metro Michigan stations WTKG 1230 AM and WOOD Newsradio1300 AM and 106.9 FM.

About Dennis Tubbergen
Dennis Tubbergen has been in the financial industry for over 25 years and has his corporate offices in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Tubbergen is CEO of PLP Advisors, LLC and has an online blog that can be read at www.dennistubbergen.com. To view Tubbergen’s latest Moving Markets? newsletter, go to www.moving-markets.com.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and not necessarily those of USA Wealth Management, LLC. This update may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements as to future events that involve various risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual events or results to differ materially from those that were forecasted. Therefore, no forecast should be construed as a guarantee. Prior to making any investment decision, individuals should consult a professional to determine the risks, costs, benefits and fees associated with a particular investment. Information obtained from third party resources is believed to be reliable but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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