New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/10/2013 --The pace of economic recovery and renewed growth is critical to Spain's energy market, as it will drive the country's demand for oil and natural gas - virtually all of which is imported. Spain is a key conduit for gas pipelines from Algeria and is a major receiver of liquefied natural gas (LNG), an area where further capacity expansion is possible once the economic outlook improves. Shale gas could potentially offer improved self-sufficiency, but is unlikely to revolutionise the energy outlook. Meanwhile, Repsol has started to undergo a strategic shake-up following the Argentine government's privatisation of its YPF unit.

The main trends and developments we highlight in Spain's oil and gas sector are:

- Due to a change in historical data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the modest Spanish Oil consumption outlook we have lowered our 10-year Crude Oil consumption forecasts. According to the EIA, Spain is estimated to have consumed 1.29mn b/d in 2012 and we expect demand to average 1.34mn b/d in 2017, increasing further to 1.40mn b/d by 2022. No meaningful local oil supply is available, meaning crude imports will reach at least 1.31mn b/d by 2017 and 1.38mn b/d by 2022.
- According to data released by Enagas on April 9 2013, Spain's natural gas imports reached 32.9 terrawatt hours (TWh) in March 2013, down 5.1% year-on-year. The fall in natural gas imports has been attributed to a shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from Egypt and Peru. Spain did not import LNG from either country in March 2013. Gas imports from Egypt and Peru were 1.85TWh and 1.07TWh respectively a year earlier. Combined LNG and pipeline imports from Algeria, Spain's largest supplier of Natural Gas, accounted for 42.9% of Spain's total gas imports in March, up 16.7% from March 2012, comprising 14.9TWh via pipeline and 3.69TWh via LNG shipments, Enagas data showed. However, overall Spanish gas demand in March 2013 fell 4.4% year-on-year to 30.5TWh.
- Our estimate for gross liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for 2012 came in at 24.0bcm, a figure which we forecast to plateau at 30.0bcm between 2017 and 2022. Steady progress is therefore expected in terms of the LNG trade during our 10-year forecast period.
- Earlier industry estimates had been assuming annual gas consumption growth of 10% for the next few years. This estimate now looks highly optimistic, given Spain's fiscal predicament, the economic outlook and pricing trends. Our assumption for 2013 gas consumption is 32.8bn cubic metres (bcm), rising to a potential 36.2bcm by 2017 and increasing to 40.5bcm by 2022.

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