"Russia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013" Now Available at Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research recommends "Russia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/12/2013 --We are very positive about growth potential in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular. We view the livestock sector positively as well, even though the dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. WTO entry has not triggered major changes in government support to the sector, but we see a small reduction in the overall budget allocated to the sector. Combined with lower farmers' income from the subdued 2012/13 season, this could limit the recovery in 2013/14.

Key Developments

- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 14.2% to 62.9mn tonnes. Yield gains and better access to export markets in Asia are expected to result in increased wheat production.
- Milk consumption growth to 2017: 0.3% to 12.0mn tonnes. This slight increase in consumption will most likely be aided by increased interest in coffee, as milk is a complementary good. Consumption of premium coffee as a niche-but-growing segment is demonstrated by the rapid growth of domestic coffee house chains.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 64.6% to 4.6mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong domestic demand and government initiatives to ensure a domestic production surplus. Specifically, the government is implementing programmes to improve the country's slaughter and processing capabilities.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 3.4% (down from 3.6% in 2012; predicted to average 3.9% over 2012-2017).
- Consumer price inflation: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average in 2013 (up from 5.1% y-o-y on average in 2012).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: -7.8% y-o-y to US$43.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 5.2% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

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Industry Developments

Although we expect to see a rebound in Russian grain production in 2013/14, we believe export capacity will be comparatively limited, as stocks remain low and the country's wheat export prices remain uncompetitive. Facing the smallest crop in 10 seasons, the Russian government decided against a second export ban in two years, although the country had a de facto ban because it was unable to win any wheat import tenders. Exports will be further hindered by a rise in domestic food price inflation, which at over 8% could prevent interest rate cuts from the central bank over the short term.

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