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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/30/2013 --We note that the chances of bringing Macedonia's EU accession hopes back on track have improved somewhat in recent months. Crucially, an end to the political impasse, which has gripped the legislature earlier in the year has ended, while we may be seeing some early indications that opposition to Macedonian EU membership in neighbouring Greece and Bulgaria may gradually be softening.

We are now seeing Macedonia's nominal fiscal deficit pushing deeper into the red as there are few signs that the government is successfully reining in expenditure. Despite a return to positive growth in 2013, we do not envision a major increase in revenues and therefore caution that a higher debt burden over the coming years could see borrowing costs escalate.

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Macedonia's economic recovery will continue at a moderate pace, helped by a return to growth in the household sector, as well as a continued expansion of gross fixed capital formation over the coming years. We note, however, that a recent downward revision to our aggregate eurozone real GDP growth forecast to -0.5% from -0.3% previously, poses downside risks to our 1.5% growth forecast for Macedonia's economy in 2013.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our current account deficit forecast for 2013 from 3.3% of GDP to 4.3%.

We have revised our nominal fiscal deficit forecast for 2013 from 3.7% of GDP to 4.9%.

Key Risks To Outlook

Should the trend of euro strength against global currencies (excluding the US dollar) remain in place beyond 2013, this could lead to overall declines in exports, and make the close tracking of the euro for the central bank increasingly less desirable.

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