Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Brazil Freight Transport Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/30/2013 --We forecast that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outpace the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2013 and over our medium-term forecast period (2013-2017), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class.

Nevertheless there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected growth rates - and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.

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Key Industry Data

- Air freight tonnes to grow 6.6% in 2013 to reach 1.27mn tonnes. Over the medium term, to 2017, we predict that growth will average 7% a year.
- Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 8.0% in 2013 to reach 112mn tonnes. To 2017, we predict average annual growth of 9.0%.
- Rail freight tonnes to grow by 3.5% in 2013 to reach 547mn tonnes. To 2017, we predict average annual growth of 3.7%.

Key Industry Trends

More Delays Likely On The Back Of Ports Dispute: BMI's Commodities and Shipping teams have recently highlighted potential for major disruptions at Brazil's state-run ports over the coming months on the back of additional strikes by the country's dockworkers over Provisional Measure (MP) 595 - a temporary provision, which makes significant changes to the regulatory framework of Brazil's port sector.

Despite Positive News, Difficulties Ahead For Vale: Vale reported better-than-expected Q113 earnings and profits, leading to gains in its share price and indicating the company's economies of scale and cost cutting initiatives should ensure profits in the quarters ahead. However, given the company's reliance on iron ore to drive earnings growth and its dependence on Chinese demand, we continue to believe the company's margins will come under increasing pressure and remain cautious toward Vale's medium-term prospects.

LATAM's Net Profit Plummets 96.6% In 2012: Brazil's LATAM Airlines Group registered a sharp 96.6% fall in net profit to US$10.96mn in 2012, owing to costs associated with LAN's takeover of TAM in 2012 and higher taxes in Chile. The airline is cutting its planned capital expenditure by US$1.2bn for fleet expansion in 2013-2015 despite major improvement in the Brazilian market so far in 2013.

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