oil, infrastructure, ratings, surplus, monetary, investment, ruling, decade, upside, opposition

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/07/2013 --We are positive on Angola's growth prospects over the medium term due to a combination of accelerating oil production, soaring investment - driven by an ambitious public infrastructure programme and intensifying developments in the country's sub-salt reserves - and a steadily improving outlook for the consumer. We are predicting that annual real GDP growth in the country will average 7.3% between 2013 and 2017.

Despite a slimmed down parliamentary majority, rumours of deep internal divisions and growing criticism from an increasingly vocal opposition and general public, the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA) party - over the medium-term at least - will remain in complete control of Angola's political destiny. While the general election in August saw the country's opposition parties increase their share of seats in parliament, the MPLA retain an overwhelming legislative majority.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

We believe that inflation will remain broadly stable, around the 9.0% level over the course of 2013. Although we expect exchange rate stability and government energy subsidies to keep prices relatively anchored over the short-to-medium term, structural bottlenecks, a reliance on imported goods (particularly food) and an anticipated surge in government spending are likely to preclude a sustained easing in prices.

Our outlook for Angola's external accounts remains broadly favourable despite a continued vulnerability to shocks stemming from the country's import dependent and mono-resource-reliant economy. We believe that having peaked at an estimated 13.3% of GDP in 2012, Angola's current account balance will fall to around 5.2% of GDP by 2017.

Major Forecast Changes

On account of downward revisions to our oil price forecasts and recent import-supportive developments we have decided to adjust down our forecast for Angola's current account surplus in 2013 to 7.5%, from 9.6% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

While we expect oil production to contribute positively to GDP growth over the medium term (before peaking around 2016) as a number of major projects start production, our forecasts remain subject to the myriad uncertainties associated with oil production and exploration in Angola, as well as to volatility in global oil prices.

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Germany Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Singapore Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q3 2013
- United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2013