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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/12/2013 --We revised our forecasts for the US power sector in our Q213 update, following the release of full-year electricity generation and capacity data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the latest industry trends and developments confirm our expectations for the US's electricity sector. Historically low gas prices have reshaped the sector's dynamics, put a hold on many renewable energy projects and have changed the short-term electricity mix. New gas-fired power stations received approval this quarter, such as in Oregon, Indiana and Maryland, while other utilities are opting to convert coal-fired power stations to gas-fired facilities, as is the case in Virginia. Nuclear energy will continue to suffer as a result of shale gas's success: Southern California Edison's San Onofre Nuclear power station has seen one unit taken off line earlier in 2013 following routine inspections, while Exelon has filed for the renewable of its licence at its Byron nuclear power station in the hope of extending production for another 20 years.

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Following the release of EIA data for 2012, we revised our forecasts for the US's power market. The low price of shale gas and a pick-up in economic activity have reshaped the dynamics of the electricity mix. In 2013, we forecast that total electricity generation will rise to 4,110TWh, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, which more than compensates for the reduction in electricity generation posted in 2012 and brings total generation back to levels posted in 2010.

Following strong growth of 21.1% in 2012 - driven by low prices - we forecast that electricity generated by sources of natural gas will record more modest levels of growth to 2022. Between 2013 and 2022 we forecast average growth of 1.6%. Coal, by comparison, will grow at a CAGR of 0.3% in the same period. Nuclear power posted a decline in 2012 - of 2.6% - but during our 10-year forecast period, will climb by a CAGR of 1.1%.

We forecast that growth in energy consumption will keep a pace with demand, with a CAGR of 1.1% between 2013 and 2022, taking energy demand to 4,279TWh by 2022. The US's export capacity will fluctuate between 2013 and 2022, but we forecast that it will stand at 13.9TWh by 2022.

Developments in the US power market this quarter include:

- Several gas-fired power plants received approval, including Oregon Clean Energy's proposals for a 800MW plant in Oregon; Indianapolis Power & Light's plans for a 650MW combined-cycle natural gas-fired power plant in Martinsville, Indiana; and Xcel Energy's plans to add three natural gas-fired units facilities in Minnesota and North Dakota.
- In transmission and distribution, MidAmerican Energy and ITC Holdings announced plans to construct 400 miles of transmission lines in Iowa and Minnesota by 2017 and Southern California Edison is in the midst of transmission line upgrades, which are scheduled to be completed in June 2013.

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