New Consumer Goods research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/13/2013 --We project US consumer electronics spending will grow by about 3% in US dollar terms in 2013, with growth areas including large-size HD TV sets, smartphones, Microsoft Windows 8 tablets, ultrabooks, and smart TV sets. BMI downwardly revised its forecast following negative growth in several key product categories during Q113 and questions remain about the sustainability of consumption in the absence of strong wage growth.

Sales of flat-screen TV sets were down year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q113, although there was the usual seasonal boost as vendors and retailers rolled out price promotions to appeal to consumers upgrading for a better Super Bowl viewing experience. Handset sales also fell y-o-y, with retailers attributing this to the lack of a major new product launch in the first quarter. Some surveys suggest returning consumer confidence, but vendors will largely rely on product innovation such as smart TV sets to drive growth. Falling average prices in many product categories will place revenue and margins under pressure.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer hardware sales: US$149bn in 2012 to US$154bn in 2013, +3.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised, following a dip in sales in Q113 as Microsoft Windows 8 based tablets and notebooks failed to provide the hoped-for boost.

AV sales: US$70bn in 2012 to US$75bn in 2013, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised after sales fell year-on-year in Q113. On the bright side, there is evidence that U.S. consumers are willing to pay more for features such as 3D and large-screens.

Handset sales: US$32bn in 2012 to US$35bn in 2013, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with Samsung's Galaxy S4 providing a stiff challenge to Apple in H113.

Key Trends & Developments

- The average price of a flat-screen TV set in the US market dropped sharply in H212, due to increased competition, as vendors and retailers rolled out price promotions. Mature markets in many AV segments mean growth will rely to a large extent on new technologies and features to drive sales of smartphones, as well as LED, internet-enabled and 3D TV sets.
- US PC sales are forecast to report another year of modest growth in 2012, after a further annualised contraction of traditional PC and notebook sales in Q113. In 2012, sales of ultrabooks fell far short of Intel's forecast that ultrabooks would comprise 40% of US notebook sales by the end of the year. Migrations to Windows 8-based devices should provide an impetus to PC upgrades in 2013, although so far this has also fallen short of expectations. Sales of notebooks will be constrained by the growing preference for alternative connectivity devices such as tablets and smartphones.

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