New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Turkey Tourism Report Q3 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/15/2013 --We believe that Turkey offers a great deal of investment potential to large tourist industries - particularly global hotel groups - as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time. However, in the near term we believe the unrest will deter tourists, while the increasing emphasis on relations to the East rather than with the European West will change the balance of tourist flows over the long term.

We remain very positive about the outlook for Turkish tourism between 2013 and 2017, although there is always a risk that sentiment towards the local tourist industry could be further dented by continued unrest, terrorist attacks or an increase in tensions with Syria.

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For 2013, BMI is predicting an increase of 3.5% in total tourist arrivals. The outlook for foreign visitors over the forecast period will remain strongly influenced by real GDP growth in the eurozone - one of the key source regions for tourists. Limited economic growth in two major source markets, the UK and Germany, is also expected to constrain inbound tourism over the short term.

Moreover, although unlikely to lead to a change in government in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2015, the outbreak of widespread protests against Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan marks a turning point in his decade long stint in power. Ongoing unrest will act as a deterrent for tourists, many of whom will be distressed by what was seen as overly aggressive police tactics in dispersing protesters.

Furthermore, in terms of foreign policy, we expect Turkey to continue rebalancing its interests away from the West in favour of closer ties with the former Soviet Union and the Middle East and North Africa. This will have a marked effect on the nationality of inbound tourists, as an increasing divide between Turkey and the EU might well result in less European tourists and more from the MENA region. Equally, a similar redistribution could occur with regards to outbound departures from Turkey.

However, Turkey also receives a significant amount of inbound tourism from the faster-growing CEE region and, in particular, Russia. Much of the CEE region is currently booming and various tourist industries, particularly the large global hotel chains, are looking towards the CEE region now as they see it as a potentially lucrative market. A large part of this growth will be seen in intra-CEE tourism, and Turkey's future tourism arrivals will reflect this. Higher disposable incomes from Russia and other former states of the Soviet Union should also lead to increased outbound tourism demand for CEE countries such as Turkey over the medium term.

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