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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/20/2013 --Government efforts to better protect Peru's energy infrastructure from guerrilla attacks are critical for continued growth of the energy sector. Despite this, the underexplored nature of the energy sector, combined with an increasingly attractive business environment for foreign investment, creates upside risk to our forecasts. It also supports our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economics in Latin America over the forecast period. The potential departure of two major foreign investors, Repsol and Petrobras, represents a setback, but new licensing initiatives should draw in fresh international oil company interest.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Peruvian oil and gas sector are:

- On 31 May 2013, Peru announced the opening of a bidding round for nine offshore oil blocks. According to government officials, the round was expected to attractive investments at a minimum of around US $450mn. ExxonMobil and Chevron, were among the 20 companies who expressed interest in the blocks according to the Peruvian officials. The offshore blocks are the first offered since 2010 and will offer some of the country's most underexplored offshore acreage. That no onshore blocks were included in the round was a reversal of prior efforts to include 27 concessions in the Amazon.
- Peru is hoping to attract US$1bn in new investment into its hydrocarbons sector when it auctions off 26 oil concessions in the Amazon in H213, World Oil reports. Luis Ortigas, chairman of government agency Perupetro, said that each concession would require about US$40-50mn in exploration investment.
- Peru's oil production growth should remain strong over the next several years, with the estimated 2012 annual average of 160,400 barrels per day (b/d) increasing to 200,400b/d by 2017. The pace of growth will shift to the downside after that, albeit modestly, with the last year in our forecast, 2022, seeing 192,600b/d of output. Oil demand, which averaged an estimated 161,000b/d in 2012, is set to rise steadily throughout the forecast period. We expect it to reach 179,500b/d by 2017 and hit 198,200b/d in 2022.
- Led by the Camisea development, Peruvian natural gas production will continue to steadily increase yearon- year throughout the forecast period. Indeed, Peru should produce 15.8bcm of natural gas in 2017, a significant increase from the 11.8bcm estimated for 2012. Production will peak in 2018 and 2019 at 16bcm, and then begin levelling off towards the end of our forecast period. In terms of gas demand, consumption growth will remain steady over the forecast period. Indeed, estimated 2012 consumption of 6.1bcm will rise to 8.3bcm in 2017. In 2022, consumption is set to surpass 10bcm.

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