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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/26/2013 --Further sanctions and continued cutbacks by key Iranian customers reinforce the negative outlook for Iran's oil sector. With limited prospects for a positive resolution of sanctions in the near term, we highlight both the short- and possible long-term downside risks confronting the Iranian oil sector as international isolation continues. Indeed, gas export schemes and refinery expansion projects will make little progress as international oil company partners heed the investment embargo. Meanwhile, Iran is claiming a succession of major oil and gas discoveries that, if proven, demonstrate considerable upside potential to its existing resource base. In a bid to secure much-needed investment, Iran is offering improved terms to contracts long seen as uncompetitive by operators, but few national oil companies are likely to bite in view of sanctions and a backlash from the US/UN.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

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- The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in June 2013 that Iran's oil production had fallen some 700,000b/d from 3.00mn b/d in 2011. Iran's crude exports have declined by 20% amid international sanctions, according to the country's oil minister, Rostam Qasemi. Its production figures remain the same, however, while refined oil product exports have increased, compensating for the decline in crude exports, Qasemi added.
- Over the near term, we see Iranian gas production rising at a modest average rate of 2% per annum to reach 171bcm by 2017. With demand increasing to 188bcm in the same period, there is a theoretical shortfall that would have to be met by imports. This seems unlikely, certainly if sanctions persist. Iran has the capability to produce gas at a much higher level, however. Our production forecast falls well short of earlier Iranian government predictions that production would reach 200bcm per annum within the next few years.
- Iran is reportedly eyeing its first gasoline export hub in the southern Iranian city of Bandar Abbas, near the Persian Gulf, amid Western sanctions against the country. The Bandar Abbas and Persian Gulf Star refineries are expected to have a total production capacity of 50mn litres of gasoline per day. Gasoline produced at the two refineries will meet Euro-4 and Euro-5 requirements. Four oil refining projects are underway in Iran, which are expected to boost the country's gasoline production capacity to 144mn litres, according to Farhad Ahmadi, the managing director of National Iranian Oil Engineering and Construction Company.

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