Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Japan Autos Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/29/2013 --The expected contraction in Japanese auto sales has continued into June, as sales for the month fell 10.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), taking the total for the first six months of 2013 down 8.0% y-o-y. We forecast over a 4.8% decline for 2013, based on the incentivised growth of 2012, which we believe will be difficult to repeat. However, we are upgrading our 2013 auto sales forecast from our previous estimate of a 11.4% drop.

With the subsidies bolstering sales for much of 2012, it is reasonable to assume that sales in 2013 will contract without the subsidies. That said, while we remain bearish on the Japan autos market, it is important to note that the stimulus of 2012 topped out just after H112, due to the full utilisation of government funds and sales had already started slowing in H212. Therefore, we see sales enjoying favourable base effects in H213.

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While the yen has weakened substantially to cross JPY100/US$ recently, production decisions are made on a long-term basis and we do not expect Japanese automakers to reverse their overseas expansion strategy anytime soon. Indeed, Toyota Motor announced plans in April 2013, to base its Lexus car production in Kentucky in the US.

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