New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Israel Retail Report Q3 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 09/09/2013 --The Israel Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Israel's economic outlook of slowing private consumption and government spending.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Israeli retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible further deterioration of the situation in the eurozone on the Israeli consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Israeli retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Israeli per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 24.0% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 53.5%. The country comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for 'risk'.

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Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by nearly 34% between 2013 and 2017, from US $0.49bn to US$0.65bn, with solid demand for patented medicines among the wealthier population. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the regulatory changes that are driving marked OTC and non-patented market growth.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- We forecast real GDP in Israel expanding by 3.7% and 3.8% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, compared with growth of 3.2% in 2012. Much of the acceleration in growth will be triggered by the beginning of natural gas production in the recently discovered Tamar gas field, which will significantly reduce the country's import bill, while base effects will underpin an, albeit modest, acceleration in export growth this year. That said, the domestic economy will remain in a soft patch, with austerity fiscal measures set to hit private consumption in H213 and 2014.
- Private consumption grew 2.9% y-o-y in seasonally adjusted terms in Q113, after increasing 3.1% y-o-y in Q412. The inflationary outlook will certainly prove conducive to supporting household spending, with our baseline scenario seeing headline consumer price inflation averaging 1.9% this year, which is slightly higher than 1.7% in 2012.

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