New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "India Agribusiness Report Q4 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 09/25/2013 --BMI View: We hold a positive view on India agribusiness sector, as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and is likely to be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand growth for manufactured foodstuffs. We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomena owing to climate change effects and serious water shortages. Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic government intervention, which seriously hampers its reputation as an international provider. As such, we see the partial liberalisation of the sugar industry as a first positive step that will incentivise production growth and investment in the sector.

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Key Forecasts

- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 5.4% to 5.5mn 60 kg bags. Strong growth will be driven by major export potential, government support, the expansion of cultivated area and India's robust coffee consumption growth.
- Palm oil consumption growth to 2017: 33.2% to 9.2mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.
- Milk production to 2016/17: 18.4% to 151.4mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by The improvements in breeding techniques, robust expansion of domestic consumption and increasing dairy prices which will renew interest in dairy production as a commercial activity.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$234.1bn in 2013 (up from US$230.5bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 3.3% on average from 2013 to 2017).
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.5% (up from 5.0% in 2012; predicted to average 6.2% from 2013 to 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 7.0% (down from 8.1% in 2012; forecast to average 5.1% from 2013 to 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 7.25% average (down from 7.50% in 2012; forecast to average 7.05% from 2013 to 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Poultry production out to 2016/17 revised up, to 4.2mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 4.0mn tonnes). Growth in the sector will be driven by rising incomes and increased domestic demand as well as the emergence of vertically integrated producers with reduced consumer prices. It will also come from a raft of investments in the sector designed to improve growth.

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