Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Russia Retail Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/02/2013 --The Russian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Russia's economic outlook of the Cyprus bank bailout and, by extension, domestic loan growth.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Russian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the risk of a more precipitous fall in global energy prices (prompted by persistent weakness in the global economy) on the Russian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Russian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Russian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 48% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 39%. The country comes second in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms significantly for Risk.

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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by 201% to US$305.51bn by 2017. This would take MGR's share of the overall food market from 42.0% in 2013 to 81.2% by 2017.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Russian government has committed to spending billions on infrastructure over the next 10 years, particularly railroads and highways, which should translate to better logistics for expanding retailers.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- BMI is revising down its 2013 real GDP forecast for Russia to 2.6% from 3.6% previously, on the back of signals that President Vladimir Putin is willing to let headline growth drop below the 3.0% level this year. Although this now places us below consensus on growth, we see potential for further downward revisions over the next few months.
- Our long-held view that Russia's impressive consumer story would slow in H212 played out well, with real private consumption growth dropping from 9.1% year-on-year in Q112 to 5.8% by year-end. Add to this the president's recent rejection of fiscal stimulus measures proposed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, which will severely limit the government's capacity to boost consumption, and we expect real household expenditure to expand by a more modest 4.0% in 2013, from 6.8% in 2012.

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