New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Hong Kong Shipping Report Q4 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/03/2013 --The port of Hong Kong holds the top position in Hong Kong's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput. We believe its return to growth in 2013 will be hindered by a 40-day strike, continued recession in the eurozone, the sluggish nature of US economic growth, the slowing outlook for the Chinese economy, the move of Chinese factories further inland and competition from the neighbouring port of Shenzhen, and project a throughput decline at the port.

Over the rest of the medium term, BMI projects moderate growth at the port of Hong Kong. Although so far it has managed to weather the competition from the development of Shenzhen as China's second largest container port and despite the close proximity of the two facilities has still managed to retain its lead, Hong Kong is now forecast to lose it to Shenzhen, which, BMI believes, also had its container throughput bolstered as a result of the Hong Kong strike, as some shippers re-routed there to avoid the industrial action. We, however, also highlight that the port of Hong Kong has long-term expansion plans in place to ensure it remains among the world's top ports.

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Headline Industry Data

- 2013 port of Hong Kong tonnage throughput forecast to decrease 5%, over the medium term we project a 3% increase.
- 2013 port of Hong Kong container throughput forecast to decrease 9%, over the medium term we project a 2% decrease.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast at 3.25%.

Key Industry Trends

Hong Kong Decline Continues: The strike at the port of Hong Kong may have come to an end in April 2013, but the throughput declines at the port have not stopped, with the latest data for May and June 2013 showing a 10.5% and a 3% decreases in container volumes year on year (y-o-y) at the facility. The declines highlight that the problems that the port of Hong Kong faces go deeper than industrial action.

TS Lines Stops Iran Calls: Hong Kong-based TS Lines has decided to end its Iranian service. As a result of the move, there are no more non-Iranian long haul services calling in Iran, making Iran-based Hafiz Darya Shipping Lines (HDS) the only carrier to operate the Far East-Middle East service with Iranian call.

Risks to Outlook

The major short-term risk to our outlook for Hong Kong is presented by a potential deepening of the slowdown in demand outlook for Europe, the US and China. If the mainland economy experiences a sharper-than-expected slowdown, or the sovereign crisis in Europe takes a turn for the worse, it would lead to a decline in throughput at the nation's port.

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