Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/03/2013 --Core Views

Though the coalition government has reiterated its commitment to a common goal of eventual EU membership, we believe the domestic political environment will remain heavily divided along ethnic lines, posing a significant impediment to structural reform and threatening the country's EU membership ambitions.

The economy will begin to rebound from the double-dip recession in 2013, though this recovery will be slow and vulnerable to external headwinds, particularly from the eurozone.

The passing of the 2013 budget was an important milestone for fiscal policy, though ongoing political uncertainty and limited administrative capacity pose a threat to successful execution.

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Major Forecast Changes

There have been no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

Failure to agree on a key reform issue this year, such as the delayed census, could trigger an irreparable split in the governing coalition, even before the 2014 election date. This would lead to another political impasse that would further delay progress towards EU accession.

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