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Recession Continues In 2013

We continue to see the Dutch economy stuck in recession in 2013, with positive growth not expected until next year. GDP fell by 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q113, affected by a collapse in fixed investment, lower government spending, and the ongoing worries about eurozone finances. The centrist coalition government of Prime Minister Mark Rutte continues to have a struggle on its hands to bring the fiscal deficit under control. Some signs of resilience in consumer spending and net exports during the first three months of the year were not enough to change the overall picture. Looking forward to the rest of this year we believe consumer sentiment will be weak, with a combination of rising unemployment, economic uncertainty, falling property prices, and weak credit supply all playing a part. BMI expects GDP to contract by 0.6% in 2013 and to be followed by 1.1% growth in 2014. Next year's growth will be driven by a gradual recovery in confidence across the eurozone, as speculation over the break-up of the single currency now begins to fade away.

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We have again trimmed back our freight forecasts across different transport modes. While most are likely to see cargo volume growth in a lower 0.5%-2% range, growth will remain positive in spite of an actual contraction in overall GDP during 2013. There are various reasons for this, with perhaps the most important being the country's role as a gateway into northern Europe. This means that freight demand reflects not just the fortunes of the Dutch economy, but also those of a number of better-performing neighbours in northern Europe.

Headline Industry Data

- Port of Rotterdam bulk throughput forecast for 2013: growth of 1.0% to 445,942mn tonnes. Container traffic to expand by 1.2% to 12.008mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2013 Port of Amsterdam bulk throughput forecast to grow by 1.2% to 78.195mn tonnes. Container traffic to grow by 0.5% to 43,764 TEUs.
- 2013 rail freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 1.5%, to reach 38.479mn tonnes.
- 2013 road freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 1.4%, to reach 550.304mn tonnes.
- 2013 inland waterway freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 1.7% to reach 360.687mn tonnes.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast set at 2.8% in real terms - similar to 2012.
- Export growth remains sluggish, at 2.5%, for both 2012 estimates and 2013 forecasts.

Key Industry Trends

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