New Market Report: Indonesia Retail Report Q4 2013
New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Retail Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/14/2013 --The Indonesian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact of poor trade performance on the Indonesian economic outlook. The report considers how to maximise returns in the Indonesian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of high large-scale portfolio outflows (should the global economy underperform BMI's already bearish expectations for 2013) on the Indonesian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indonesian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Indonesian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 57% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 43%. Indonesia comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by 75.8% between 2013 and 2017, from US$125.0bn to US$219.7bn as the large population is tempted by certain aspects of modern retailing such as private labelling, price promotions and bulk selling. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's interference in hypermarket planning, which should encourage growth in the medium-sized supermarket sector and the convenience sector.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- Despite a moderation in real GDP growth to 6.0% in Q113, the Indonesian economy continues to expand at a healthy clip. That being said, we believe that headwinds are growing, particularly in view of both tightening monetary policy conditions and the government's ongoing policy incongruence. As a result, we have lowered our headline 2013 and 2014 real GDP growth forecasts slightly to 5.9% and 6.0% from 6.1% and 6.5% respectively, and note that investment activity in particular could be set to disappoint.
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