New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Italy Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/17/2013 --Italy's energy situation is to progressively improve on the short term, with stable production, falling consumption and enhanced import infrastructure. The public rejected state efforts to revive its nuclear strategy, clearing the way for gas volumes to rise steadily higher - forcing the import bill up at the same pace. However, the energy strategy unveiled in October 2012 seeks to reduce oil imports to 67% of Italian needs by 2020. We do not expect that this target will be met, despite increase in domestic production from Total's Tempa Rosa Field in 2016. We believe gas production will be more problematic for the country as the discovery rate remain low and reserve are depleting fast.

The main trends and developments we highlight in Italy's oil and gas sector are:

- According to the EIA, Italy is estimated to have produced 154,240 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 and we foresee that it will remain broadly stable until 2015. BMI forecasts that Italy will see an increase in oil production from 2016 onwards, as the Tempa Rosa field comes online. Production is set to peak at around 204,000 b/d in 2018.
- Italy is seeking to reduce its spending on energy by cutting down on imports. On October 16 2012, it unveiled a new energy strategy that seeks to reduce imports to 67% of demand by 2020. We currently expect that this number will be closer to 84%. While this is an improvement for the country, it remains far more conservative than government target.
- Italy's oil consumption was 1.31mn b/d in 2012; by 2017 we forecast that oil consumption could fall even further to hit 1.29mn b/d, reaching 1.30mn b/d by 2022. Overall, we expect Italy's oil consumption to average to 1.29mn b/d between 2013 and 2022.
- As with oil, gas consumption will be affected by the lack of economic growth in the next decade. Although gas use in power generation is the key to demand growth and gas consumption, it has fallen from 83.10bcm in 2010 to 74.9bcm in 2012. Consumption looks set to reach 74.4bcm by 2017and increase to 75bcm afterward on the back of better economic conditions.
- Although there is a reasonable level of ongoing exploration activity in Italy, both onshore and offshore, no important discoveries have yet been revealed to resemble the discoveries in the Val d'Agri region in the 1990s. We forecast progressive reduction in both oil and gas reserves throughout the forecast period, with respectively 447,000 b/d and 60.9bcm left in 2020.

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