Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/25/2013 --The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

- Natural gas consumption in Germany is under pressure from a glut of cheap coal and generous renewable subsidies. Supporting gas demand will be greater utilisation of gas as transport fuel, the phasing out of nuclear, and gas-fired power generation as a back-up to intermittent renewables. However these upside factors will be kept in check by energy efficiency gains - which have seen gas consumption fall since the early 2000s - ambitious subsidised renewable projects and government targets, as well as cheap and abundant coal.
- While we see limited upside to conventional gas production, which looks set to continue its downward trend, there is some upside to oil reserves and production from new investments by independents targeting enhanced oil recovery utilising new technologies to recover previously uneconomic reserves. We also see possible gains from exploration of the former East Germany, where a lack of investment stymied production previously.
- The primary upside to gas remains efforts to tap Germany's shale gas resources, yet even if the regulatory environment proves supportive, commercial production of shale gas is unlikely to occur inside our forecast period.
- The political debate continues its uncertain trajectory. In the latest developments, draft regulations that would permit hydraulic fracturing (fracking) were released by the government. While promising, the outlook remains uncertain as opposition at the local level and among opposition parties to the practice remains strong in the environmentally conscientious country.
- The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) issued a report which has upgraded Germany's shale gas potential to an estimated 6.8-22.6trn cubic metres (tcm) of reserves. The findings may have little impact on the parliamentary committee currently studying Germany's shale gas potential. The controversial fracking process has been in use in Germany at low levels since the 1960s, but increased public scrutiny has increased uncertainty over prospects for any large-scale effort to develop unconventional gas resources.
- In March 2013 the shutdown of operations began Royal Dutch Shell's 100,000b/d Harburg refinery. The event is an ominous one for the European downstream, which has seen margins tighten under pressure from abroad and a growing competitiveness gap. Germany's large refining sector is at risk of further capacity rationalisations as the pressure on Europe's downstream continues.

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