Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Shipping Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 11/18/2013 --Thai port and shipping growth will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. According to our forecasts in 2013 GDP will grow by 4.0%, while foreign trade will expand by a slightly higher 5.4%.

Net Exports Likely To Be A Drag On Growth

Slower economic growth in China, and increasingly close economic links between China and Thailand, are having a significant impact on our outlook. In recent months we have seen quite sharp fluctuations in manufacturing production and exports, but we believe there is danger they may be entering an extended period of stagnant growth linked to lower demand from China in H213. On the plus side, we expect private consumption to remain relatively resilient for the moment (although it could be affected further down the road by any job losses in the export sector). The reappearance of tensions between the ruling Puea Thai Party (PTP) which is pushing ahead with controversial constitutional reforms and a possibly amnesty law on a piecemeal basis, and the opposition-aligned urban elites, could have a negative impact on investor confidence. But for the moment gross fixed capital formation also looks strong. Public spending is expansive as the government boosts its infrastructure programme and maintains rice subsidies. While contributing to growth now, an expanding fiscal deficit will eventually need to be dealt with. All this leads us to maintain our 2013 GDP growth prediction of 4.0% (which remains below the Bloomberg consensus figure of 4.7%). In 2014 we project GDP growth of 4.5%.

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Headline Industry Data

- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 5.0%, to 45.51mn tonnes in 2013 (faster than the forecast 4.0% GDP growth for the year).
- Box handling at the same port to rise 2.7%, to 6.086mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI projects that tonnage growth will slow to 4.1% in 2013, at 19.41mn tonnes, with container handling set to grow 6.5%, to 1.488mn TEUs.
- We expect the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.4% in 2013, up from 4.5% the year before. Imports will be up by 6.4%, ahead of exports that will grow by 4.4%.

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