New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 11/25/2013 --Recent improvements in relations with the West bode well for the country's economy. That said, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme will ensure that risks to the outlook remain elevated.

The economy will remain a regional laggard in 2013, as investment activity stalls following the imposition of a more stringent set of international sanctions on the regime in 2012 and 2013.

Despite recent improvements, the Iranian rial will remain under fundamental downside pressure, a situation which will contribute to elevated inflation over the coming quarters.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to fall 1.6% in real terms in 2013, up from our previous forecast of a 2.0% contraction. We project real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2014, from 2.8% previously. Recent data show that oil production is somehow recovering, and we expect oil exports to return to positive territory in 2014. We expect macroeconomic management to improve following the victory of moderate cleric Hassad Rouhani in presidential elections in June, which will ensure that growth accelerates over the medium term.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

We have revised up our forecast for the Iranian rial, which we see averaging IRR33,000/US$ in unregulated trading in 2013, compared to our previous forecast of IRR35,000/US$. We project the unit averaging IRR30,000/US$ in 2014. Although improved confidence on the country's economic trajectory and more cordial relations with the West will cushion from a dramatic drop in the value of the rial, downside pressure on the unit will remain elevated going forward.

Key Risks To Outlook

A breakdown in negotiations over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts downward and our inflation forecasts upward.

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Chile Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Mexico Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- United Arab Emirates Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Canada Business Forecast Report Q1 2014