Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Autos Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 01/02/2014 --According to Toyota Motor Thailand, Thai vehicle sales contracted 28.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2013, to 94,945 units. In August, we expressed our view that sales declines in the market following the end of government subsidies in 2012 continue to weigh heavily on the market (see 'Softening Domestic Demand Prompts Sales Downgrade', August 19 2013). The widening of the negative y-o-y sales growth rates since then attests to the lingering hangover effects stemming from the withdrawal of subsidies.

Downgrading LCV Sales But Upgrading Car Sales Forecast

Sales in the pickup segment continue to remain weak, with 9M13 sales declining 6.8% y-o-y, to 448,074 units. We are downgrading our already bearish 2013 light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales growth forecast from -10.0% to -14.0%, to 572,851 units.

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On the other hand, we realise that we were too pessimistic about passenger car sales. With monthly sales currently stabilising at around the 48,000 units level, we have decided to upgrade our full-year 2013 growth forecast to -3.8%, from -7.0% previously. This would bring passenger car unit sales to 644,496 for the year. As a result of these modifications, we have also revised our total vehicle sales growth forecast for 2013 to -8.0%, from -7.6% previously, with sales reaching 1.32mn units.

Sales To Stage Mild Recovery In 2014

With the low base effects of 2013 in place, the stage is set for the market to rebound in 2014. However, we expect the recovery in sales to be modest, as high levels of household debt remain a cause for concern. Furthermore, given the rise in loan defaults due to the first car scheme, which saw many consumers take on loans they could not afford, lenders are likely to become more judicious in assessing the credit worthiness of vehicle buyers before granting them credit. As such, we forecast vehicle sales to grow 2.0% in 2014, to 1.35mn units.

Production

According to the Federation of Thai Industries, Thailand's domestic auto production for the first 10 months of 2013 came in at 2.12mn units, an increase of 7.1% y-o-y. However, vehicle production in October declined 4.8% month-on-month and posted the lowest absolute figure since April.

Although some plants in Amata Nakorn Industrial Estate were temporarily shut down in October owing to flooding from heavy rains, we believe the actual disruption to vehicle production has been minimal. This is in contrast with the situation in 2011, when devastating floods ravaged the country's entire automotive supply chain. On the contrary, October's weakness was part of a larger structural trend.

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