Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Venezuela Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 01/07/2014 --We expect the situation in Venezuela to worsen under a new law which will empower President Nicolas Maduro to enact legislation without approval from parliament, a new tool in what the authorities have called an 'economic war' against business owners, the opposition and foreign influences. The doubledigit pharmaceutical market growth is largely due to high inflation. In terms of real growth, we forecast the pharmaceutical market will experience contraction between 2013 and 2017 (President Maduro's first term), indicating a highly challenging environment for multinational pharmaceutical companies.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: VEB43.5bn (US$10.1bn) in 2012 to VEB59.85bn (US$9.86bn) in 2013; +37.7% in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast upwards from Q413 due to higher inflation forecast.
- Healthcare: VEB88.7bn (US$20.7bn) in 2012 to VEB124.06bn (US$17.6bn) in 2013; +39.9% in local currency terms and -1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast up due to macro economic data changes.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Risk/Reward Rating: Venezuela comes ninth in BMI's RRR matrix for Q114 in America, which ranks pharmaceutical markets according to their attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. We have re-weighted the RRR components to improve the tool, and adjusted scores for all markets in the Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare reports. Venezuela's pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at double-digit rates through to 2022 in local currency terms, largely due to inflation.

Key Trends And Developments

- In November 2013, BMI made a downwards revision to the long-term forecast for Venezuela's pharmaceutical market on the news that on November 19 the Venezuelan National Assembly granted President Maduro the power to rule by decree, bypassing the need for congressional approval for enacting new laws for a period of 12 months.
- In September 2013, Pfizer Venezuela launched a medicine for the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (NET) in Venezuela.
- In September 2013, Health Minister Isabel Iturria admitted that the country's hospitals are in poor condition after the under-resourced healthcare system received many complaints from medical personnel and patients.

BMI Political View: Since his election earlier this year, President Maduro has largely maintained the policies of his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, in line with our expectations. However, there are some notable differences under the new administration, including a tacit admission of the need for economic reforms, and - less positively - rising potential for greater discord between the president and leading members of the ruling party and the army. We maintain our view for heightened political risk as a result of ongoing economic turmoil, combined with the inherent vulnerability of Maduro's short tenure in office.

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