New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 04/09/2014 --The key area for growth in the MENA region will be in gold. Although we are forecasting lower average gold prices over the coming quarters, we expect prices to remain elevated by historical standards. Given the relatively low cash costs for gold production, as well as low base effects, we expect to see substantial growth rates over the coming years.

The majority of capacity additions in phosphates coming years will be coming from Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia began diammonium phosphate (DAP) production in 2011 and will reach the steady-state production rate of 3mnt (mn tonnes) DAP by 2015. The Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) will also be adding significant new capacity to the market between 2013 and 2015. As producers from Saudi Arabia and Morocco generally sit on the left side of the cost curve, some high-cost capacity (typically Chinese producers), who do not have access to lower-cost rock may be displaced.

Key Forecasts

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- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 2106.3% to 7.9mn tonnes. This will come on the back of steady growth in the country's wheat demand, a result of strong economic growth. Increased planting and productivity gains will also help to support output. The spectacular growth rate is due to based effects following 2012/13's drop in production.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 17.3% to 2.5mn tonnes. Demand growth will mainly be driven by a steadily expanding domestic livestock sector.
- Milk production growth to 2017/18: 23.0% to 2.9mn tonnes. Sustained growth will come from the commercialisation of the dairy sector and the move to large-scale mechanisation. These trends will be enforced by rising consumer demand for value-added marketed dairy products
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 28.3% year-on-year increase to US$4.21bn in 2014, forecast to grow on average 12.8 % annually between 2014 and 2018.
- 2014 Real GDP growth: 2.8%, down from 4.4% in 2013. We forecast GDP growth to average 3.8% between 2014 and 2018.
- 2014 Consumer price inflation: 2.8% average, up from 1.9% in 2013. We forecast inflation to average 2.6% between 2014 and 2018.

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