Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Israel Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 04/10/2014 --Gas production from the Tamar field has largely made Israel self-sufficient in natural gas supplies, though the country did require an emergency LNG cargo during a rare December snow storm. We expect stagnation in production growth in 2015 as bottlenecks at the onshore receiving facility at Ashdod will limit output to 10.5bcm. This should be resolved by 2016 in sufficient time to take output from the Leviathan field where development is due to begin in mid 2014. Gas from Leviathan could flow from late 2018 with export opportunities increasingly likely from this point. We see comparatively strong liquids upside with growing condensate volumes from Tamar and eventually Leviathan.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:

- Israel has managed to secure its first gas export sales agreements, finalising a deal with companies from the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. In January 2014, Palestine Power Generation agreed to purchase 4.75bcm over a 20-year period from the Leviathan field. While in February, a 15-year agreement was signed between Arab Potash and Jordan Bromine for 2bcm of gas from the Tamar field.
- After the discovery of an extension to the Tamar field, the addition of the Tamar SW field saw an upward revision to reserves. In February, Delek announced a 17bcm increase of P1 reserves to 220bcm, with best estimate reserves now at 303bcm. Further appraisal drilling at other discoveries, such as Karish, could see similar results.
- In October 2013, the Israeli Supreme Court upheld the government's decision to retain 60% of proven reserves for domestic use. Other groups were petitioning for a complete ban on exports. This decision also recommends the Tamar field to be purely for domestic needs, though a small export with Jordan has since been signed. Nevertheless, the focus of Israeli gas exports will now be on the Leviathan field.
- Development of the Leviathan field will be delayed by as much as one year due to the slow progress on the government's move to push through export allowances. Development, which could have begun in 2013, will now begin in mid-2014 with first production expected in 2018.
- The Tamar natural gas field entered production in March 2013 at approximately 8.4mn cubic metres/day (3bcm annually) with ramp-up to a peak of 27.6mn bcm/day (10.1bcm). Our 2013 gas production estimate for Israel is 6.88bcm, a conservative average to factor in declining volumes from Mari-B and the ramp up from Tamar.

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