Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 04/15/2014 --We expect Saudi crude production to remain elevated but decline in 2014 and 2015. This view is based on rising non-OPEC supplies, assumed growth in Iraqi production and the potential of higher volumes from Iran. However, major disruptions to supplies from key producers such as Libya, and expectations for a recovery in global demand for crude, are likely to keep production elevated, posing upside risks to our forecasts. Major downstream additions are to continue into 2014 while Aramco is planning a major effort to tap conventional and unconventional shale gas reserves. The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

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We highlight the following trends and developments in Saudi Arabia's oil and gas sector:

- Higher exports in early 2014 were driven by healthier-than-expected demand. On the back of an improving global economy, exports were robust at the start of the year with Saudi Arabia drawing on stockpiles rather than raising output to support new exports. With output in OPEC countries such as Libya still weak, there is room for Saudi output to remain high over 2014.
- Our core view for now remains for liquids production to decline by 0.8% in 2014 to 11.3mn b/d. We also see increasing risks that in line with production cutbacks to continue into 2015, with a 0.5% decline currently pencilled in. However, given Saudi Arabia's unique role in acting as the world's supplier of last resort, disruptions elsewhere or stronger-than-expected global demand could support increased production. That said, rising supplies within OPEC - namely from Iraq - and outside OPEC - with North American output to continue rising impressively - are likely to see Saudi Arabia reduce output in order to protect prices.

- There were reports that as recently as November Saudi Arabia was willing to act unilaterally regardless of the views of OPEC members. However developments from both within and outside OPEC suggest change is in order and that the shift is already underway. Supporting the shift in strategy may well be a growing recognition in Riyadh that, given the scale of the potential changes underway, acting independently may not be in its best interests or perhaps of OPEC itself. Reducing output unilaterally could see Saudi Arabia lose market share should its fellow exporters fail to follow suit.

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