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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 05/26/2014 --We have been below consensus on Turkey's medium-term real GDP growth outlook since mid-2013, based on our view that the country's growth model, driven by a huge reliance on foreign borrowing to fund a rapid expansion of domestic credit, would no longer be viable in light of tightening global liquidity conditions. While signs of easing domestic demand were beginning to emerge by end-2013, destabilising political developments have exacerbated a downturn in investor sentiment, consumer and business confidence. Following an estimated 3.6% growth in 2013, we now forecast real GDP to expand by 1.5% and 3.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, well below consensus estimates of 2.3% and 4.0%.

The effect of lira depreciation in boosting export competitiveness, in conjunction with accelerating growth in the European Union, implies a fairly upbeat outlook for export growth in 2014. The European Union accounted for 41.5% of Turkey's total export market in 2013, concentrated in Germany and the UK where we expect domestic demand to play a more prominent role in economic growth.

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However, Turkey's high import dependency, primarily a result of a substantial energy deficit, will act to mitigate potential competitiveness gains. Higher input costs on the back of rising inflation and lira depreciation will have to be absorbed in firm's profit margins, or passed on to final export prices. In 2014, we expect the Port of Ambarli to experience the highest year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput growth rate with growth of just under 10% anticipated. Although this is below the two consecutive years of double-digit y-o-y growth at the port, it is still set to perform better than domestic rivals the Port of Izmir (3.00%), Port of Derice (4.00%) and Port of Haydarpasa (4.84%).

Headline Industry Data

- 2014 port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9.70%; over the medium term to 2018 we project average annual growth of 7.58%.
- 2014 port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow 4.56%; over the medium term we project annual average growth of 6.49%.
- 2014 total trade growth forecast at 3.95%, down from an estimated 4.35% in 2013.

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