New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q4 2014"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 09/05/2014 --Despite ongoing tensions with Russia, Ukraine will see another strong grain harvest in 2014/15. In our view, ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine will pose downside risks to exports as we could see disruption in transportation for the crop. Also, we see downside risks to our production outlook for grain, livestock and dairy on the back of deteriorating credit conditions in the country.

Key Forecasts:

- Corn production growth 2012/13 to 2017/18: 39.0% to 29.1mn tonnes. We are turning more optimistic on the potential for output growth on the back of increased investment in the country. Ongoing tensions could put downside risks to this view however.

- Poultry consumption growth 2013 to 2018: 13.9% to 936,100 tonnes. Poultry demand will benefit from lower corn prices and its preferred status as a cheaper and healthier alternative to red meat.

- Milk production growth 2012/13 to 2017/18: 12.2% to 12.9mn tonnes. Over the medium term, consolidation and increased investment are expected to start to compensate for industry exits, with production rising steadily over the forecast period to 2017/18.

- 2014 real GDP growth: -4.1 % , down from 0.0% in 2013. Predicted to average 0.5% from 2013 to 2018.

- 2014 consumer price inflation: 16.0% average, up from -0.3% in 2013.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 8.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD40.9bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 0.2% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

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Industry Outlook:

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently indicated that his government will not take retaliatory actions against Ukraine dairy products after sanitary authorities signalled much poorer quality sold from its neighbours on the back of the difficult operating conditions for dairy companies since the start of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. We see this conciliatory tone as somewhat peculiar coming from Russia as the country...

The Ukraine Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Ukraine Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits:

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage:

Executive Summary:

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Ukraine.

Industry SWOT Analysis:

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts:

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis:

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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