New Business market report from Business Monitor International: "Argentina Real Estate Report Q4 2014"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 09/05/2014 --Argentina's commercial real estate sector continues to be affected by the wider economic problems, notably high inflation, low GDP growth, restrictions on the purchase of US dollars and a business environment that does not favour international investment.After the January 2014 devaluation of the peso, inflation has increased, estimated at as much as 25%, leading to a drop in consumer, and investor, confidence. Should the government's new inflation index lose credibility, we would expect investor confidence in the country to be further dented, affecting the commercial real estate market by putting off potential market entrants, as well as potential expansions.

Meanwhile, we expect real GDP to grow by only 0.4% in 2014, significantly down from 3% in 2013, although we do see an improvement to 3.3% in 2015, meaning the economy is operating well below potential.

The ongoing restrictions on use of the US dollar, in which most real estate transactions are denominated, as well as the government's questionable economic policies will continue to have a detrimental effect on the overall health of the retail sector, with industrial real estate in particular suffering.

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However, the bright spot in the commercial real estate landscape remains retail, with continuing strong demand for luxury, mass grocery and modern-style retail. This demand is also spreading outside the capital, Buenos Aires, to other cities with untapped demand. Although consumer confidence is low, and inflation will account for some of the gains both in consumer spending and retail rental costs that we predict, we do see strong potential for the sub-sector.

In the office sub-sector there has been a narrowing in the gap between Buenos Aires rental costs and those of the other two cities that we cover, with top end rents in C?rdoba now exceeding those in Buenos Aires. However, we do note that this could prove unsustainable in the longer term.

Recent Events

- According to the Buenos Aires Notary...

The Argentina Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Argentina Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Argentina.

Key Benefits:

- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Argentinian real estate market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Argentina through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage:

BMI Industry View:

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis:

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview:

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis:

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario:

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

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