Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Nigeria Country Risk Report Q2 2015", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 02/02/2015 --Core Views

- Presidential elections on February 14 will be the most closely fought since Nigeria's return to democracy in 1999. While a victory for incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and his ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) is the most likely outcome, victory is not assured. Regardless of outcome, we expect little major deviation in policy trajectory given the personality-based nature of Nigerian politics.
- Currency concerns will be the central issue for the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2015. Following aggressive tightening of monetary policy in November, we believe that further tightening measures will be necessary to anchor inflation expectations and reassure jittery markets.
- The economic outlook for Nigeria has deteriorated. While we maintain our broad view that falling oil prices will not have a major impact on headline GDP growth given the predominance of the non-oil sector, some pass through now seems inevitable.
- The new era of lower oil prices raises serious questions over Nigeria's fiscal sustainability. Substantive and politically-unpalatable spending cuts will be needed if the country is to prevent a fiscal crisis unfolding over the next few years.

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Major Forecast Changes

- We have made substantive changes to our macroeconomic forecasts for Nigeria in the wake of falling oil prices.

Key Risks To Outlook

- The volatility of oil prices poses a significant risk to export revenues and government receipts, which, if disrupted, could harm macroeconomic stability.
- While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially affect investment, exports, and growth.
- The approach of the 2015 elections will see political risk remain elevated and could result in lower growth than we currently predict if there is a major political event.
- Power sector reforms are crucial for long-term productivity gains. If these are slowed or stalled, this would lead to lower long-term...

The Nigeria Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Nigeria. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Nigeria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Nigeria's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Nigeria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Nigeria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Nigeria Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Nigeria' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Nigeria through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Nigeria Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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