Fast Market Research announces the availability of the new Business Monitor International report, "Taiwan Country Risk Report Q1 2016", on their comprehensive research portal

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 11/27/2015 --Taiwan's economy contracted by 1.0% y-o-y in Q315 compared to the 0.5% expansion registered in the previous quarter. Ongoing weakness in the Chinese economy amid increasing uncertainty in the domestic political situation will continue to weigh on Taiwan's economic growth. As such, we have downgraded our 2015 and 2016 real GDP forecasts to 1.0% and 1.9% (respectively) from 1.7% and 2.5% previously.

The replacement of the KMT's presidential candidate less than three months before the presidential and legislative elections on 16 January 2016 will be insufficient to stem the sharp outflow of support from the KMT and might even backfire as it loses the support of deep-blue and swing voters. As such, the opposition DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, remains the frontrunner in the presidential election, and the gap between the KMT and the DPP for the legislature race continues to widen in favour of the DPP.

Get More Details on this Report and a Full Table of Contents at Taiwan Country Risk Report Q1 2016

The CBC cut its discount rate by 12.5 basis points (bps) to 1.75% on September 24 amid concerns over the slowing economy. While we expect the central bank to stand pat on rates for the rest of this year as policy makers assess the impact of the cut, we now forecast two additional rate cuts of 12.5bps each in 2016 in a bid to support growth and keep the Taiwan dollar competitive. We have also downgraded our 2016 real GDP forecast to 2.5%, from 3.4% previously to reflect ongoing export headwinds.

Taiwan's expansionary budget will miss its deficit target in 2016 due to its overly optimistic view of stronger global growth, informing our forecast for the deficit to come in at 1.6% of GDP, higher than the government's projected 0.9%.

The surge in reserves reflects fundamental buying pressure on the TWD, with the currency carving out a bottom. Over the long-term, an undervalued real effective exchange rate, low inflation, and huge current account surplus will lend support to the currency, allowing gradual appreciation.

The Taiwan Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Taiwan. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Taiwan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

-Forecast the pace and stability of Taiwan's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
-Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
-Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
-Contextualise Taiwan's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
-Evaluate external threats to doing business in Taiwan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Taiwan Country Risk Report by BMI  Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Taiwan' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Taiwan through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Taiwan Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

-Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
-BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

-Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
-Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
-Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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