Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “United States, United Kingdom and South Africa Country Risk Report Q1 2017” research report to their website www.MarketResearchReports.com

Lewes, DE -- (SBWire) -- 10/28/2016 --The US economy is set to grow at a rate below its historical trend in 2017, as a strengthening labour market supporting private consumption is offset by export and manufacturing headwinds. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2017, compared to forecast growth of 1.5% in 2016.

We project a Hillary Clinton presidential election victory and for Democrats to retake the Senate. Given the auspice of a divided government, we forecast only a modest widening of the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to 3.4% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2018, from an estimated 3.1% in 2016 and below consensus expectations. Our core view of gridlock in Washington in 2017-2018 following the November 8 election suggests broad macroeconomic policy continuity going forward, likely under Hillary Clinton as president. However, there is a 25% chance of a 'sweep' by either the Democrats or Republicans in the election, an outcome that could lead to a significant shift in policy.

The US benchmark federal fund interest rate will rise only modestly in coming quarters, and will not reach its terminal level until 2018. High-frequency economic data in the US have been mixed over recent months, while downsides risks to global growth remain significant.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our long-term fiscal and government debt projections, and we now expect the US fiscal gap to steadily widen over the next 10 years, averaging 4.1% of GDP from 2016 to 2025. By the end of that period, we expect government debt to rise to 89.2% of GDP from 73.8% in 2016.

For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/united-states-country-risk-report-q1-2017

The announcement that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which begins official Brexit negotiations, will be invoked by March 2017 will usher in a period of heightened political and economic uncertainty. The UK legislative calendar will become extremely congested as the 'Great Repeal Bill' repeals the Communities Act 1972 and transposes EU provisions into UK law when the UK leaves the EU, to allow amendment or removal at a later date.

Preliminary post-Brexit data have proven resilient and worst-case scenarios have been avoided. That said, the economy still faces massive headwinds from rising political and economic uncertainty, weak investment and falling real income growth.

While Brexit poses clear downside risks for growth, particularly in the short run, we also see potential upsides over the long term. That said, there remains a high degree of uncertainty over what terms will define the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the EU and thus how the referendum result will impact the potential growth of the economy.

The Bank of England will cut its policy rate to 0.10% in the coming months despite rising inflationary pressures and the resilience of initial economic data following the UK's referendum on EU membership. Given the bank's dovish bias we cannot rule out additional unconventional easing measures if growth slows in line with our forecasts in 2017.

We expect a relaxation of deficit reduction targets in light of a slowing economy, including higher infrastructure spending. That said, budget consolidation will remain the overarching trend of fiscal policy. In light of positive structural economic reforms undertaken by previous governments, coupled with flexible monetary and exchange rate policies and a competitive business environment, we remain bullish on the long-term economic prospects for the UK.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our real GDP growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.8% and 0.5% respectively, from 1.4% and 0.2% previously.

For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/united-kingdom-country-risk-report-q1-2017

Growth will rebound only slightly in 2017, after a sharp slowdown in 2016. Elevated unemployment and sluggish credit growth will weigh on private consumption, while continued fiscal consolidation limits government spending. Elevated policy uncertainty and a poor operating environment will act as a continued headwind to investment.

We believe that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will keep the policy rate on hold at 7.00% through end-2017. With inflation poised to come within the upper bound of the target band sustainably by mid-2017, and growth sluggish, we believe the hiking cycle is largely passed.

We expect South Africa's fiscal deficit to narrow, though at a slower pace than anticipated by the government. Weak economic growth will act as a headwind to fiscal revenues.

In the aftermath of a poor showing by the ruling African National Congress (ANC), the risk of a turn toward more populist policy measures or severe party infighting remains elevated.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our forecast for the rand, after a stronger than anticipated performance through mid-2016. We now forecast the currency will average ZAR14.75/USD in 2016 (from ZAR15.40/USD) and ZAR15.00/USD in 2017.

For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/south-africa-country-risk-report-q1-2017

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