USA Wealth Management LLC

Can the U.S. Dig Its Way Out of the Unemployment Hole We Are In?

Financial advisor Dennis Tubbergen compares today's employment figures with those of 2007 and comes up - very short.

 

Grand Rapids, MI -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/14/2010 -- Noted financial advisor Dennis Tubbergen often discusses the U.S. and world financial markets in his economic blog and his Moving Markets? monthly newsletter. Tubbergen, who is CEO of USA Wealth Management, LLC, a federally-registered investment advisory company, has been keeping a close watch on unemployment numbers in the U.S.

“I was reading John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter recently and noted with great interest the argument he made regarding the economic recovery, and in particular, employment,” commented Tubbergen.

Tubbergen gives the following statistics from Mauldin’s newsletter:

• There are 14.5 million unemployed people in the United States;

• There are another 9.4 million involuntary part-time workers (workers who would like to be working full-time but can’t find full-time employment; and

• There are 2.5 million marginally-attached workers. This group of marginally-attached workers consists of people who would take a job if offered but they haven’t looked for a job in the last four weeks.

The really bad news?

“Mauldin concludes it would take the creation of 11-12 million jobs to get back to a 2007 unemployment rate of 5 percent,” explains Tubbergen. “But that doesn’t count the new workers entering the workforce. According to Mauldin’s newsletter, another 1.5 million new jobs annually are required to provide jobs to new workers entering the workforce.”

That figure assumes the Baby Boomers cooperate and retire when they are expected to retire. But at this point, they are not.

“Without factoring in that Baby Boomers are not retiring at their ‘normal’ age, we need to create 19 million jobs over the next 5 years to reach 2007 employment levels,” calculates Tubbergen. “That’s over 315,000 newly-created jobs every month for the next 5 years.”

Tubbergen notes the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports there have been 18 months out of the last 250 months (over 20 years) that the number of jobs created in a month has exceeded 310,000 jobs. Many of those months occurred in the 1990s when the economy was booming.

“Historically speaking, it’s a big hole to climb out of,” concludes Tubbergen. “This recovery will be long in coming, particularly when employment is used as a metric to gauge economic health. The job creation numbers needed to get us healthy again are simply staggering.”

For more information on Dennis Tubbergen’s views, visit http://www.dennistubbergen.com.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and not necessarily those of USA Wealth Management, LLC. This update may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements as to future events that involve various risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual events or results to differ materially from those that were forecasted. Therefore, no forecast should be construed as a guarantee. Prior to making any investment decision, individuals should consult a professional to determine the risks, costs, benefits and fees associated with a particular investment. Information obtained from third party resources is believed to be reliable but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.