Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Albania Business Forecast Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/20/2013 -- Albania's economic recovery will remain slow over the next few quarters, with real GdP growth of 2.5% pencilled in for 2014. the modest recovery will be driven by a slight improvement in private consumption and steady export growth, while the country's dete -riorating fiscal position will ensure that growth rates remain below potential for some time to come.
Albania's current account deficit will narrow modestly to 8.2% of GDP in 2014, due to strong exports and subdued import demand. Weak remittance inflows and the sluggish recovery of the tourism sector will prevent a more significant current account deficit contraction, while steady foreign direct investment inflows will comfortably cover the shortfall over the medium term.
Weak aggregate demand and low commodity prices will ensure that inflation is subdued in 2014. We forecast headline inflation to stay below the Bank of Albania's target rate of 3.0% +=1.0% and average 2.0% in 2014, paving the way for 50 basis points of cuts to the policy rate over the course of the year.
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Although the new socialist Party government under Prime Minister edi rama is likely to speed up the pace of political reform in albania in 2014 and 2015, underdeveloped political institutions and domestic instability will ensure that progress towards eu accession remains sluggish. tackling corruption will also prove problematic, while the country's deteriorating fiscal position is likely to further constrain the government's ability to promote economic development.
Major Forecast changes
We have revised our forecasts for real G dP to expand 2.5% in 2014, from 3.1% previously, against the backdrop of a the country's deteriorating fiscal position and rising public debt.
Key risks to outlook
The main risk to our outlook for albania is for a slower-than-expected economic recovery in the euro area, and in italy in particular. Weaker demand from abroad would restrict demand for albanian exports, which would further weigh on private consumption and the country's already shaky economic recovery.
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