Fast Market Research recommends "Albania Business Forecast Report Q1 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/09/2014 -- Core Views
- Albania's economic recovery will remain sluggish in 2014, hindered by anaemic consumer spending and the government's deteriorating fiscal position. We forecast Albania's economy to grow by 2.5% in 2014.
- The current account deficit will continue shrinking in 2014, with exports set to benefit from recovering external demand and imports restricted by weak consumer and corporate spending.
- Weak domestic demand will ensure that inflationary pressures remain subdued over the coming quarters. With low bank lending also stifling Albania's economic recovery, we expect the Bank of Albania (BoA) to continue its rate cutting cycle in 2014, lowering rates by 50 basis points to 2.50% by year-end.
- Although it is looking increasingly likely that Albania will be granted EU candidate status in June 2014, full membership of the bloc remains a distant prospect. Corruption and crime will continue undermining Albania's regional profile over the next few years, alongside growing fears over the sustainability of the country's rising public debt load.
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Key Forecast Changes
- We have revised our forecast for Albania's current account to shrink to an 8.6% of GDP deficit in 2014, from 8.2% previously, against the backdrop of lower-than-anticipated remittance inflows from neighbouring Greece and Italy.
Key Risks To Outlook
- The unbalanced nature of the economic recovery means that Albania is overly reliant on recovering exports, and we would therefore be tempted to revise-down our real GDP forecast for 2014 if leading and high frequency indicators point towards a slower-than expected recovery in external demand in the first half of 2014.
- Albania's growing public debt load also represents a serious risk to the country's attractiveness as an investment proposition. Although we expect the government to remain relatively committed to fiscal consolidation, we caution that as of yet not enough has been done to instil confidence in the country's ability to prevent its...
The Albania Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Albania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Albania's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Albania's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Albania's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Albania, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Albania Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.
How will the Albanian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Albania through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Albania Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
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