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"Algeria Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013" Now Available at Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research recommends "Algeria Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/13/2013 -- Adoption of new hydrocarbons regulation in January 2013 could spur exploration in Algeria in the coming year, especially in offshore and unconventional acreages. We are nonetheless sceptical about the tax reform, which could prove burdensome for oil and gas producers. The next short-term challenge for Algeria will be to alleviate the security concerns created by the In Amenas attack. In the meantime, start-up of the El Merk oil project, in May 2013, along with several gas projects to come online in the next few years, will help Algeria maintain its level of production.

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The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:

- Anadarko's El Merk oil project started production in line with planned scheduled throughout Q213. The project reached an output of 12, 000 barrels per day (b/d) in May, which is expected to peak at about 130,000b/d by the end of the year.
- There have been three other key developments in Algeria's hydrocarbons sector since the beginning of the year. Firstly, the attacks on the In Amenas plant and Ain Chikh pipeline. Secondly, the adoption of the 2013 Hydrocarbon law, revamping the production tax system, state ownership and exploration incentives. Finally, the start up of gas production at Eni-operated Menzel Ledjmet Est.
- The Algerian Parliament in January 2013 approved a new national hydrocarbons law that reforms some of the more unwelcome policies that were established in 2005. We believe that while it creates strong exploration incentives, the new production tax regime remains unclear and burdensome, and could deter some companies from entering the market. Additionally, increased state ownership, especially in downstream and midstream, is creating further uncertainty for investors.
- Terrorist attacks, in particular at BP's In Amenas gas plant, are creating security concerns for investors, further fuelled by the armed conflict in neighbouring Mali. Most likely, these events will push state hydrocarbons regulator ALNAFT to postpone the long-expected offshore licensing round in order to wait for improved investor sentiment.
- We forecast that oil production will rise from an estimated 1.847mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 1.926mn b/d in 2016 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Berkine basin, come on stream. Production will steadily decline afterward to reach around 1.873mn b/d in 2020.
- Consumption of crude is forecast to rise steadily between 2012 and 2022. This is partly in line with the expected GDP growth rate. We anticipate that
- We forecast that gas production will increase from an estimated 84.4bcm in 2012 to 107bcm by 2022 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Ahnet, Berkine and Illizi basins, come on stream. Production will be further boosted by increased output at major fields such as Hassi R'Mel and by enhanced recovery rates at the In Salah Gas Project.

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