New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Algeria Petrochemicals Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/30/2013 -- BMI is upbeat about the prospects for growth in the Algerian petrochemicals market in the context of rising, yet not spectacular, economic growth. We forecast real GDP growth in Algeria of 3.5% and 4.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, up from 2.2% in 2012. Growth in private consumption and fixed investment will slow this year. Given slack projected petroleum production growth and the lack of structural reforms, the economy will grow below potential over the medium term. Yet, industry should remain broadly supportive of rising petrochemicals consumption, even as the non-oil economy slows.
Delays to current projects indicate that the realisation of the country's full potential in petrochemicals is unlikely over the forecast period. These delays will not only raise costs and lead to a narrowing of margins in the long term, but they will also create a more opaque business environment that will undermine progress and put the industry's significant cost advantages - in terms of domestic natural gas feedstock availability - at risk.
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- Strong growth in agricultural output will lead demand for domestically produced fertiliser, while a rebound in construction following a period of contraction should boost PVC consumption. Meanwhile, engineering plastics, particularly in the PP segment, will be supported by a surge in local car-making following investment by Renault, provided there is a high level of local manufacturing content in the assembly line.
- The main development in H113 is the planned commencement of operations at Sorfert Algeria's fertiliser plant, which will produce around 800,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of merchant ammonia and 1.2mn tpa of urea for export. Mechanical works were completed at the beginning of 2013, but the start-up of production was pushed back due to delays to government approvals. According to reports in March 2013, the plant was due to start up in Q213, but reports in May suggested further delays.
- Algeria ranks 10th in BMI's Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix this quarter, with an overall score of 40.6 points out of 100, unchanged on the previous quarter. Its petrochemicals-specific scores benefit from progress at the Arzew petrochemicals complex, but are held back by delays in other projects.
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