Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/23/2012 -- BMI View: Despite our forecast for a disappointing 2011/12 grains season owing to unfavourable weather conditions, Argentina will still run a surplus in almost all commodities. One of the main weaknesses of the sector is the country's inconsistent export policy, which leads to recurrent farmers' strikes and distrust from the country's buyers. This also discourages farmers from investing and producing more in the longer term, resulting in reduced yields and crop quality. That said, the sector is likely to have plenty of production incentives in the coming years, and we expect Argentina to remain a key and integrated player in the global agricultural markets.
- Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 37.9% on the 2010/11 level to 2.8mn tonnes. We expect the amount of sugar cane diverted towards ethanol production to increase. The strong increase in sugar cane planted will translate into greater centrifugal production as well.
- Pork production growth to 2015/16: 15.9% to 357,060 tonnes. This will be driven by the government's efforts to reduce the proportion of beef in the local diet in order to free up more for export.
- Soybean consumption growth to 2016: 15.4% to 46.9mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by the government's support of biodiesel production and by strong export demand for soybean oil and soybean meal from China.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 4.0% (down from 9.3% in 2011; predicted to average around 4% to 2016).
- 2012 consumer price inflation: 21.0% average (from 9.8% average in 2011).
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
We have revised down our corn production expectations for 2011/12, as extremely dry conditions and very high temperatures at the end of 2011 have reduced output. The areas most affected are in the country's key corn belt, including Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Cordoba. Tensions are rising again between the government and grains and soy producers in Argentina, as the Buenos Aires province decided a new land tax hike. This could put significant pressure on farmers' profits and limit production incentives in one of the country's largest grains-producing regions.
We are forecasting steady growth in Argentine poultry production in 2011/12 as consumers turn towards this healthier and increasingly cheaper option. We forecast poultry production growth in Argentina to surpass beef and pork output growth in the medium term because of increased investment in the sector in genetic improvement, high-quality feed and sanitation. Furthermore, poultry farmers benefit from easy access to feed grains and do not face export restrictions. Output will also be fuelled by strong demand from the export market as currency devaluations make Argentina very competitive and avian flu hampers Asian rivals.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Food research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- India Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- France Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- South Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Russia Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Romania Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Algeria Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Brazil Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
- Egypt Agribusiness Report Q3 2012