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Argentina Business Forecast Report Q4 2014 - New Market Report

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Business Forecast Report Q4 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/22/2014 -- The Argentine economy is reeling following the January 2014 currency devaluation. Economic growth has slowed markedly, prompting us to revise down our real GDP forecasts, as soaring inflation discourages investment and erodes purchasing power. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic activity has prompted a widening of the fiscal deficit, in line with our expectations, as government spending accelerates, and weak growth weighs on revenues. Moreover, we see further weakness for the Argentine peso, as the authorities allow for a gradual depreciation of the currency to address a widening spread between the black market and official exchange rates.

Politically, we are starting to see signs of strain. The perception of heightened street crime prompted incidents of vigilante justice in March and April, undermining the narrative that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has presented, in which she, and her husband Nestor Kirchner before her, presided over a decade of economic expansion and social inclusion. Moreover, the long-running legal battle between the Argentine government and investors who have refused restructuring offers on defaulted debt - the so-called 'holdouts' - is likely to exacerbate President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's weak political position. While we expect that political pressures will not boil over into larger protests, with moderate policies and candidates gaining ascendance up to October 2015 general election, we highlight the potential for greater social unrest as the economy slows this year and crime remains high.

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Key Forecast Changes

- We forecast real GDP to expand by 1.7% in 2015, a downward revision from our previous forecast of 3.1%, and implying only a modest improvement from forecasted growth of 0.4% in 2014. Argentina's economic recovery will be muted in the coming quarters, as currency weakness and high inflation weigh on private consumption. In addition, uncertainty over the trajectory of economic policy following the country's...

The Argentina Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Argentina and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Argentina's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Argentina's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Argentina's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Argentina, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Argentina Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Argentina economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Argentina through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Argentina Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

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