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Argentina Freight Transport Report Q4 2013 - New Market Report

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Freight Transport Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/24/2013 -- BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine freight transport sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and labour unrest. We continue to expect that Argentine real GDP growth will bottom in 2013, forecasting 1.8% growth this year after 1.9% growth last year, as a currency devaluation, which we expect to occur in H213, sends inflation higher, and net exports drag on real GDP growth. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% next year on the back of a rebound in private consumption and less of a drag from net exports.

Exports and imports of goods and services offset each other last year, but in 2013 we expect net exports to deteriorate, subtracting 0.9pp from real GDP growth, with a negative knock-on effect on freight transport volumes. Tight import restrictions inflated the goods trade surplus last year, but we believe the removal of these policies as of this February will lead to surging imports.

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Headline Industry Data

- Total volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 2.5% in 2013 to reach 11.2mn tonnes. - Air freight volume growth is set to grow by 0.75% to 170,600 tonnes in 2013, with average annual growth 0.8% during our forecast period.
- Rail freight hauled in 2013 will grow by a modest 1.0% to 22.8mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 2.7% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Further Nationalisation Of Railways

The Argentine government is furthering its nationalisation of the country's railways and has announced it is revoking two freight concessions held by America Latina Logistica (ALL) of Brazil. Should the nationalisation be carried out in tandem with investment in the network, as has been promised by the Fernandez administration, we believe volumes could enjoy accelerating growth in the coming years.

CSR Delivers Rail Coaches In Argentina

The Mitre rail network in Buenos Aires has taken delivery of three five-car formations powered by a diesel engine at each end of the Retiro-Tigre service line. The locomotives and commuter coaches were built by Chinese rail equipment builder CSR.

LAN Restarts Flights Following Agreement With Intercargo

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