Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/10/2014 -- BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. A more drastic slowdown than we previously expected in various high frequency indicators have led us to revise down our forecast for Argentine real private consumption and gross fixed capital formation growth in 2014. As a result, our real GDP growth forecast is 0.4% in 2014, a downward revision from our earlier forecast of 1.2%, as the impacts of the January currency devaluation weigh on private consumption and fixed investment to a greater extent than we had originally factored in. This forecast implies an even greater slowdown from 3.0% real GDP growth in 2013. The main driver of the slowdown is the impact of the country's January 23 currency devaluation, which sent inflation expectations soaring. As a result consumer confidence has plunged.

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We acknowledge that there are some risks remain to the upside, as an improving business environment and more moderate economic policies could lead to a surge in inbound investment into the country's oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, we caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes in the coming years.

Headline Industry Data

- Total volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 0.6% in 2014 to reach 11.04mn tonnes.
- Air freight volume is set to grow by 4.2% to 232mn tonnes-km in 2014, with average annual growth 4.9% during our forecast period.
- Rail freight hauled in 2014 will grow by a modest 0.46% to 22.867mn tonnes, with average annual growth of 2.4% during our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Truck Driver's Strike Averted: A national truck driver's strike was narrowly averted in July 2014. The Argentine trucker's union secured an agreement on a 33% salary increase, to be given in three instalments. The first 18% will be collected in...

The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Argentina.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

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