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Argentina Retail Report Q2 2013 - New Study Released

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Retail Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/30/2013 -- The Argentina Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concern about the impact on Argentina's economic outlook of the prospect of a sizeable currency devaluation.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Argentine retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of deteriorating relations between Argentina and its key trade partners on the Argentine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The latest report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Argentine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Argentine per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 28% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 15%. The country comes last in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/ Reward Ratings, although it performs slightly better for Risk.

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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 26% between 2013 and 2017 - from US$5.88bn to US$7.43bn.

We expect a strong growth in discount offerings across the board, not necessarily only through the discount format, but through the development in private labels across all the major MGR formats.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- We believe that the slowing in Argentina's 2012 real GDP growth presages further deceleration in 2013, and forecast that growth will slow from 2.8% to 0.9%. Structural imbalances have been building in the Argentine economy for years - namely, inflation of more than 20% a year and an overvalued exchange rate - and we believe they will come to a head in 2013.
- BMI expects that a period of policy moderation starting in 2014 will reduce political risk around investment in the country, and we forecast that real GDP growth will trend upwards to 5.3% in 2017, averaging 3.5% annual growth over the forecast period.
- As the effects of interventionist economic policies weigh on the Argentine economy, we believe the consumer sector will continue to underperform compared with recent years. As unemployment continues to increase (we forecast it will hit 8.0% by end-2012) and consumer confidence continues to weaken, we expect real private consumption growth to slow further to just 3.5% in 2012.

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