Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/08/2015 -- Over the course of 2016 we expect to see road freight once more outperform the other two modes in Australia with the former coming in at 3.10% y-o-y growth, and rail freight and air freight are forecast to grow by 2.77% and 0.70% respectively. The slight y-o-y gains across all of the modes compared to 2015 are in line with our view that the overall trade picture is set to improve over the next 12 months with real trade growth pencilled in to increase by 3.00% in 2016. Through to the end of our forecast period in 2019, we expect growth to be steady, if uninspiring. We expect the Australian dollar to continue to face fundamental downside pressure, and this will allow the decline in imports needed to improve the country's external indebtedness over the coming years.

The Australian economy continued to slow in Q1 2015, and we maintain our 2015 real GDP growth estimate of 2.3% (versus 2.7% in 2014). The country's worsening terms of trade and unwinding investment boom continue to act as major headwinds to growth going into 2016, thus tempering the rate of growth of the freight modes in Australia over the short term. That said, the lack of an explicit easing bias by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and potential risks to the property market caused by low interest rates suggest to us that further cuts by the central bank are unlikely, and we expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 2.00% over the course of 2015 and 2016.

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We anticipate growth across all three freight sectors in Canada, with the rail sector achieving the highest levels of growth of 3.3% in 2016. This trend falls in line with signs of a general economic recovery in the country and growth in all key trade indicators, with total trade growing by 3.2% in 2016 and peaking at 3.5% in 2017. Canada will continue to trade primarily with the US and signs of economic recovery in the US should have a positive effect on demand for the country's goods.

We forecast real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2016, with business investment in machinery and equipment gradually replacing investment in the energy sector over the coming years. We forecast the weaker exchange rate and stronger US demand will see non-commodity goods exports rise and draw down inventories to an extent that businesses will step up their fixed investment in machinery and equipment, which stymies our Canada freight forecasts somewhat due to the US' place as Canada's top trade partner.

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We forecast strong growth across all freight modes in Nigeria in 2016 and beyond. Increasing demand for consumer goods by an expanding middle class and manufacturing sector will raise intermodal container volumes. Population growth means growth in demand will continue, driving investment into the freight sector, with substantial interest in developing the country's dilapidated rail network in addition to investment in the road and air freight infrastructure. We forecast a real GDP expansion of 3.8% in 2016 while Nigeria continues to struggle with its readjustment to low oil prices. Some policies being pursued by the president and the Central Bank will further constrain growth in the near term.

Economic growth in Nigeria will be weighed down by foreign exchange controls, an overvalued naira and policy uncertainty, all of which will serve to reduce investment in Africa's largest market. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2016, following an estimated 3.3% in 2015. This is a marked slowdown on the 6.2% averaged over the five years to 2014, reflecting the impact that the Q214 collapse in the oil price has had on the Nigerian economy. Oil has in recent years accounted for over 70% of fiscal revenues and 90% of exports, but with Brent crude set to average USD56 per barrel (/bbl) in 2016 and USD55/bbl in 2017, following a projected USD57/bbl in 2015, Nigeria must adapt its economic model from the days when oil averaged well over USD100/bbl. Nigeria's current account balance will remain in deficit in 2016, as exports will fail to recover from the 2014 oil price collapse. The deficit will narrow from 2015 however, as an inevitable naira devaluation will limit imports.

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