Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/04/2013 -- BMI View: Bahrain has a slowly declining and small oil production base, and there is little it can do remedy this situation. This means the onus in terms of investment is firmly on the downstream, where Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) is planning to increase the capacity of the kingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery - from 267,000b/d to around 450,000b/d. For this expansion plan to proceed, Bahrain will need to gain access to financing of more than US$6bn, which will be a significant hurdle. Other plans envisage the construction of a LNG receiving terminal, although this is still a long way from realisation. For the moment, the government will focus its efforts on upgrading its main refining units - the low hanging fruit in its oil and gas infrastructure portfolio.

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We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

- BMI sees Bahraini oil production rising to as much as 97,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2021, in line with efforts to boost output at the mature Bahrain field. We expect oil consumption to grow to almost 60,000b/ d.
- We expect both oil and gas reserves to decline in the period 2012-2021, pending new discoveries. Oil reserves are expected to fall to 112mn barrels (bbl) by 2021, with gas reserves falling to around 80bn cubic metres (bcm). According to Tatweer Petroleum, the joint venture between Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) and Mubadala Development Company, production increased by 33% in 2011 to 45,000b/d.
- Gas production and consumption are likely to grow in tandem to around 19.5bcm by 2021.
- Risks to our forecasts include the final approval of the expansion of the Sitra refinery, the enlargement of the Saudi import pipeline, as well as a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal that would feed growing gas demand.
- State-run firms Bahrain Petroleum (BAPCO) and Saudi Aramco are considering implementing a scheme to replace, upgrade and redirect a pipeline that links Saudi oil fields to Bahrain's only refinery. The project is expected to increase the capacity of the pipeline to 350,000b/d. The two countries were expected to finish the front-end engineering and design (FEED) work by the end of 2012, and will launch the tender in 2013. The estimated cost is US$350mn.
- BAPCO is planning a major overhaul and expansion of its refinery at Sitra, with the aim of adding some 200,000b/d of capacity and additional petrochemicals production. The project is expected to cost at least US$6bn but accessing financing could be a challenge.

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