Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2013 -- The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concern about the impact on Bahrain's economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Bahrain retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the downturn in fixed investment on the Bahraini consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bahrain retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Bahrain per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 27.7% through to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 47.2%. The country comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk. Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail will be the outperformer in growth terms through to 2017. Sales are forecast to increase by nearly 44% between 2013 and 2017 from US$1.21bn to US$1.74bn, as demand for packaged and convenience foods continues to pick up on the back of busier lifestyles and more Westernised eating habits. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Bahrain's business-friendly regulatory environment, which has succeeded in attracting a number of multinational food companies.

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Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- Bahrain's economy will remain on a recovery path heading into 2014, driven by a normalisation of oil output, continued improvements in non-oil business activity, and steadfast fiscal support from the government. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.3% this year and 3.4% in 2014, up slightly from our previous projections of 3.7% and 3.2%. However, the continued uncertainty of Bahrain's political trajectory remains a key downside risk. -
We see potential for a robust recovery in private consumption this year, helped by strong base effects after growth of only 0.7% in 2012. We forecast a 6.0% expansion this year, moderating to 4.0% in 2014.

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