Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/06/2014 -- With no reserves of oil or gas, Belgium remains dependent upon imports while serving as an important downstream and distribution centre. While there was some upside from unconventional exploration targeting Belgium's coal-bed methane potential, the potential exit of one key player in the sector could see efforts slow considerably. This will leave the country entirely dependent upon imports over the course of our forecast period, with the small scale of its resources unlikely to attract major investment despite the upside offered by existing infrastructure.

The main trends and developments in Belgium's oil and gas sector are:

- Although we forecast both gas reserves and production to remain at zero, we highlight efforts by Dart Energy and NVM's joint venture Limburg Gas that will help to determine the feasibility of commercial recovery of coal-bed methane (CBM). The Flemish Institute of Technology estimates the Limburg area could contain 7bn cubic metres (bcm) worth of gas.
- If commercial, such volumes would ease the country's total dependence upon imports, yet at present, we believe it is more likely that any output would not only be outside our forecast period, but would stem rather than halt the country's dependence upon imports. However, Dart has previously suggested production may be possible from 2019.
- Yet, given the slow progress of efforts to commercialise unconventional prospects in the region - and reports of greater progress by Dart elsewhere in Europe, such as the UK - we do not view any commercial production of CBM as likely in our 10-year forecast period. Indeed, recent company materials describe Dart's Belgium assets as 'non-core', and outline company strategy as focusing on maximising returns which may include joint ventures, farm-outs, sale or exit. In a Q313 update, Dart revealed it had conducted no significant activity in Belgium, highlighting the downside risk to further investment into proving up the country's unconventional potential.
- Total confirmed a US$1.29bn investment plan that would boost diesel production capacity at its Antwerp plant. The refinery would not see a cut in its 350,000 barrels per day (b/d) output, but would produce less heavy fuel in a move that Total says could result a US$500mn boost to its refining and petrochemical earnings. The upgrade will help the refinery to meet new European regulations limiting emissions and sulfur content. The facilities product slate will shift, in line with other plants on the continent, toward greater diesel production and less heavy fuel.
- Fluxys, independent operator of Belgium's natural gas transmission network, reported consumption in the country and volumes shipped through the country to other markets were up 10% and 16% respectively in the first nine months of 2013 (9M13). The increase was driven by prolonged cold weather in the early months of the year.

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