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Brazil Mining Report Q3 2013 - New Market Report

New Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "Brazil Mining Report Q3 2013"


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/05/2013 -- Brazil's mining sector is poised for continued, though slower, growth as weaker foreign demand weighs on Brazilian exports. The country's large untapped reserves and relatively small mining sector relative to regional peers make it a compelling sector growth story and should continue to attract investment. Iron ore production will continue to be the main driver of mining sector investment, but we expect growth in several base metals, as well as gold, providing opportunities for mining companies and investors. Investments into infrastructure in advance of the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Olympics will not only help support demand for raw materials, but also enable more efficient transport of mineral resources through infrastructure investments.

We forecast that Brazil's mining industry growth will average 0.7% per annum in US dollar terms through our forecast period, reaching US$84.2bn in 2017. However, our 2013 forecast remains slightly below Brazil's 2012 mining industry value, due primarily to lower than average iron ore prices for the year. Given Brazil's status as the world's second largest iron ore producer, negative price trends for iron ore, which contributes approximately 85% of the country's total mining export value, have an outsized effect on the Brazilian mining sector. We forecast iron ore prices to average US$118/tonne in 2013 and US$104/tonne in 2014. Our below-consensus view on Chinese economic growth and belief that steel-intensive fixed asset investment will slow, as well as general weakness in demand growth both from China and the developed world, lead us to forecast modest industry growth. However, we still expect iron ore production growth to increase as new mines long in development come online and as firms remain reluctant to cut back existing production.

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